Pre Mid-Season Evaluations

A lot has changed in my rugby back line evaluations from the beginning of the year. Let's cut to the chase; my back line right now (based on a combination of merit and eligibility) would look like this:
9 Cordingley 10 Giteau 11 Tuqiri 12 Barnes 13 Cross 14 Schifcofske 15 Gerrard

If I'm picking a bench on this starting selection, I'd say the bench would be:
19 Sheehan 20 Quade Cooper 21 Staniforth 22 Turner

I pick this bench, because: Sheehan has been solid, and in my opinion the second best halfback in terms of consistency after Cordingley; Cooper has been tremendous in the limited game time he has had so far and should have no problem being a backup flyhalf or inside center (and combines well with the other QLD inside backs); Staniforth because he is so effective and versatile, able to cover both center positions as well as wings; Turner to cover the back three positions but I'd prefer to bring him on as a Wing and shift Schifcofske back to FB if necessary. If I'm reduced to a bench of 3 backs, I'd probably drop Sheehan if I felt Cooper could do an adequate job at halfback (or alternatively Giteau could move to halfback if Cordingley got injured, even though I've hated that experiment).

Back to the starters. Of that lot, Cordingley, Giteau and Tuqiri are set in stone. I would also select Gerrard (who has had a great year so far) as a definite starter, but I would prefer him on the Wing rather than FB. However, the only way that would happen is if I could pick Latham, who I am not counting as eligible due to his imminent departure overseas (but would otherwise be a "set in stone" choice). For the record, I would select Gerrard over Cameron Shepherd at FB, based on what I've seen so far.

I also think Cross should definitely be in the squad, who could start at either Center position, or be a utility player off the bench. Mortlock will trump Cross at Outside Center, assuming he is in form when he returns from injury, which then begs the question of who should be the guy at Inside Center -- Barnes or Cross. I like the options Barnes provides in terms of kicking and passing and also his combination with Cordingley, but I think based on merit I would have to choose Cross (who has been a huge game breaker for the Force this year). In this case, Barnes would have to replace Cooper on the bench, and really that's based on Barnes having really proved himself in Defense so far. But by the end of the year, it could be Cooper taking precedence over Barnes if Cooper can prove he is round enough player.
(Cooper, in two and a bit games is looking like the next best #10 after Giteau right now).

Also, if Ashley Cooper returns to form when he is back from injury, he could feasibly either claim Schifcofske's starting position or Turner's bench position, either way leaving Lachy in the cold. Ashley Cooper tends to be an attractive Test selection because he is a good physical and dependable tackler, and because he also has got good speed. Last year, I think he proved that he good be a solid Test level Winger or Outside Center.

So if you have read this far you might be wondering about some of my earlier selections and where they've gone. In summary, it's a bunch of youngsters who are demonstrating their inexperience in a pretty obvious way.

The most prominent of which is Kurtley Beale. I like Beale, but he is learning some bad habits at the moment. I am not referring to his defense (which would would pose a consideration at Test selection), but rather his core decision making at the flyhalf position of whether to kick, run or pass. Kurtley runs and passes instinctively, and tends to do a good job at this. However, he is now kicking way too often, and not in an intelligent way (both from a decision making and execution perspective). This would be influenced by Ewen's tendency around game planning around kicking away possession unless you are within 10m of opposition territory. Beale needs to have his head re-wired where if he is not sure what to do, that he will more-often-than-not favour running over kicking. If I was Ewen, I would be incredibly tempted to move him to inside center, simply because it would force him to focus on the other parts of his game a little bit more, and when he does get the opportunity as a first or second receiver, he could be a little more considered.

Lachy Turner, despite making the team above, has had his stock drop significantly. I think he has a lot to offer as a Winger at Test level, but from what I've seen this season he is not a good enough tactical kicker to be a Test level fullback. I would pretty much take any other provincial FB for the national side over Lachy right now.

As an aside, the combination of Beale and Turner's kicking is what is really killing the Waratahs right now. At least one of these players needs to change positions to allow Norton Knight to come into the side to bring an improvement in the kicking. (However, if you haven't blocked last year's awful start out of your head, you might remember that Norton Knight had a horrible start to the year in terms of his kicking -- I'm assuming/praying that was just a short term slump that won't be repeated!) The Waratahs are badly missing Peter Hewat right now.

Digby Ioane is toast. For all of his speed and electricity, he shows a lack of discipline and is not strong enough on defense. This is a real shame, because I really liked his enthusiasm, but his strengths are not enough to overcome his weaknesses. Basically, it comes down to maturity. Luke Burgess was also an early dark horse, but he's been way too inconsistent. Of the four games he's been a reserve on, he looked really good in one (the first), passable in another, and a liability in the other two. Similarly, Josh Holmes has also been inconsistent. Timana Tahu's issues with his hamstring have been well documented in the papers, and further it is not clear whether it would have been a great idea to move him into Center too early anyway.

On the positive side of things, I think Tom Carter is developing along quite nicely as an Inside Center, but is not ready for greater things yet. Similarly, I don't know what it is that they put in the water in Canberra, but their third string Outside Center - Leo Afeaki - is proving to be pretty good (and hits like a Mack Truck to boot). Their other youngsters at Inside Center (Tyronne Smith) and Flyhalf (Christian Lealiifano) have also impressed me. If the Brumbies keep performing so well with such young talent, Laurie Fisher may actually build a legitimate case for himself as a Wallabies coaching candidate. (I have not previously favoured him).

But enough on backs...