It's hard to predict a winner, because even an All-Blacks team with weaknesses is still pretty good.
I appreciate the amount of pressure that is on Henry right now, but I am really quite surprised at his uncharacteristic meekness and excuse making in his press conferences (which actually started before the test last week). This psychological chasm opening up before our eyes with the absense of the stereotypical "headmaster" character we normally see with Henry is why the Aussies licking their chops (as opposed to any differences in talent).
The AB selectors have copped a bit of flack around Kahui on the wing, but I actually like this selection given the physical nature of his opposition, and while I think Nonu creates opportunities for both sides at 12, pairing him up with his Wellington center Conrad Smith (who is a pretty good player outright) should help that combination a little bit.
I'd expect less tries and more kicking and conservative tactics as the stakes continue to climb. Weather will also dictate a change in tactics with a slippery ball. Trying to select McDonald at fullback was a clear indicator of this. As much as the AB's are lamenting McDonald not being able to play at FB tonight, Muliaina was a standout at that spot last week, so they still have a pretty good player there.
The most intriguing matchup will be at the breakdown, with the return of McCaw for the New Zealanders, vs Robbie selecting both Smith and Waugh in the same back row. Last week would have been a very different game with McCaw's presence, given the Wallaby dominance here. The overall physicality should go up a notch which should make it an outright brutal contest, and while superman McCaw always finds a way to surprise you even when you are expecting his best, I wonder whether 80 mins at this intensity level will be too much of an ask for a guy returning from a six-week layoff.
The bench selection is interesting; Vickerman is a tremendously complete player and often makes massive contributions at ruck time, and McMeniman who in more recent years has played blindside flanker as much as lock is an absolute mongrel, and loves to throw himself into the mess.
If the Wallabies don't win tonight it might be another 20 years before they get an opportunity this ripe. But make no mistake, the opportunity is absolutely there.
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